As you’re likely aware, the Oscar nominations were announced this week by the event’s host, Seth MacFairlane, and the lovely actress Emma Stone. As usual, the nominations brought a flurry of angry denouncements from people on Twitter, and elsewhere, about what film, actor or director got “snubbed” and how the Academy doesn’t know what it’s doing.
This kind of anger and confusion is to be expected and happens every year. After a few years of really caring a lot, I’ve pretty much given up being angry, outraged or disappointed by anything the Academy of Motion Pictures Arts and Sciences says, does or thinks is worthy of consideration.
The opinion of that group just doesn’t matter all that much to me, except for my friends who are actually in the Academy. Their opinion means a great deal to me. You know who you are and I thank you.
Still, seeing as how they went to all the trouble of announcing nominations, I suppose I should comment on them and make a few predictions. So, with that in mind, let’s go through the major categories and I’ll tell you who I think should win and then who I predict will win.
Let’s play our game.
Best Actor
Bradley Cooper in Silver Linings Playbook
Daniel Day-Lewis in Lincoln
Hugh Jackman in Les Misérables
Joaquin Phoenix in The Master
Denzel Washington in Flight
I’m torn right off the bat. On the surface it seems Daniel Day-Lewis should have this one locked up. He basically channeled Lincoln in the movie and from the first moment he’s on screen, he owns. Still, people really seem to love Hugh Jackman (and you can’t blame them really) and he’s playing a pretty well known character in a pretty well known musical, so it could end up being him.
As for the rest of the nominees, as much as I love Denzel, this feels more like a courtesy nomination, so I don’t think it will be him. Joaquin Phoenix won’t get it either because he’s been better in other things. Plus, nobody is going to give props to a movie that basically rips Scientology a new one. Not in today’s Hollywood.
This brings me to Bradley Cooper. Not bad for a guy who played what my friends and I used to call “Casual Will” on Alias. Good for you Bradley, but this isn’t your year. This is also a courtesy nomination. Don’t worry, you’ll get ’em next time — or maybe the time after that.
Who should win? Hugh Jackman
Who will win? Daniel Day-Lewis